Dan Kaiser - Betting Expert

The Minnesota Timberwolves hold a 2-0 lead and have been doing it with their defense and some help from the Suns. Minnesota had the leagues number one defense and it showed up in the first two games, holding the zSuns to under 100 points in both home games. They were also helped out by sloppy guard play from the suns. Booker fouled out and committed 6 to and the team had 19 in total. Booker, Durant and Bradley Beal combined to shoot 18 for 45 and I dont expect that to happen at home. Depending on the market, the total was 214.5 in Game 1 and 213.5 in Game 2. The adjustment has been made for Game 3, as the number is a full seven points lower (depending on the market). The Suns played well at home during the regular season against the Wolves, and have covered in six straight at home. Phoenix failed to crack 10 made 3-point field goals in both Games 1 and 2, and Grayson Allen’s injury has a lot to do with that. They ranked fourth in 3-point field goal percentage at home this season. I think Phoenix will play a lot better on their home court and i think they have dropped this number too much.

Play on the OVER.

The White Sox are just looking to score some runs and win a game let alone a series. Tampa Bay comes to Chi-town hoping to extend the misery. The Rays will send Zach Eflin to the mound. He is 1-2 with a 3.68 ERAthis season, The White Sox will counter with Chris Flexen. He is 0-3 with a 6.41 ERA. The White Sox have lost seven straight. In those seven losses they have scored a total of 18 runs and have lost by an average of 4.4 runs. The Rays dominated the season series last year, going 6-1 in seven meetings, with an average margin of victory of four runs per victory. Eflin, in his career versus the Sox, is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three appearances. Until the Sox show that they can score runs consistently, there is no way you can take tem against a good pitcher.

Play on the Rays minus 1.5 runs. This is a 3% play.

The Chicago Cubs despite all their injuries are 16-9 this season. Boston comes into this interleague series at 14-12. The Cubs are coming off a sweep of the Astros. They rank seventh in team OPS and are putting up 5.32 runs per game. The Chicago Cubs will send Shota Imanaga to the mound for his fifth start. He is 3-0 with a 0.84 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP in 21.1 innings. The BoSox will send Kutter Crawford for his sixth start. He is 1-0 with a 0.66 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in 27.1 innings. With both pitchers having great seasons I will have to look at the better offense. The Cubs are fifth in run production while the Red Sox are 15th. The Cubs have been dealing with injuries to key offensive players but are still finding ways to produce runs and win games. Their bullpen is a little shaky but I still like them to get a road win here.

Play on Chicago. This is a 3% play.

Neither the Washington Nationals or the Miami Marlins can be confused with good baseball teams. Both teams are coming off series where they were swept. The Nationals had won two in a row before losing their last three games. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games. They will send Trevor Williams to the mound. He has been a bright spot for the Nationa;s, posting a 2-0 record with a 2.91 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. The Marlins have lost three in a row and four of their last five games. They have the worst record in the NL and will look to turn things around with Jesus Luzardo taking the mound. This season, he is 0-2 with a 6.58 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. The Nationals rank 28th in runs scored. Their pitching is not that much better as the rank 23rd in team ERA. The Marlins rank 26th in both runs scored and team ERA.  The Nationals are four games below .500 while the Marlins are 14 games below .500 and have the fewest wins in the NL. Washington is a .500 team on the road while the Marlins have the worst home record in baseball. Washington has won three of the four games Williams has started while the Marlins have lost four of Luzardo’s five starts. The Marlins have lost five of the last seven and 15 of the last 20 when facing a team from the National League. Washington has the better pitcher and their offense will do just enough to pull out the win.

PLay on Washington. This is a 3% play

The Kansas City Royals take on AL Central rivals the Detroit Tigers in afternoon baseball. The Royals are coming off a sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays. They will look to keep the momentum going by sending Seth Lugo to the mound. He is 3-1 this season with a 2.03 ERA. In his last outing, he allowed four runs on nine hits in 5.1 innings. The Tigers took two of three against the Rays but lost the last time out. They will look to get a win by sending Reece Olson to the mound.  He is 0-3 despite posting a respectable 3.80 ERA. The Detroit Tigers have been putting up 4.04 runs per game. The Kansas City Royals put up 4.68 runs a game. Lugo has been able to avoid big innings despite giving up almost a hit an inning. The Tigers haven’t hit well all season so Lugo should be able to limit the Tigers scoring opportunities. Olson has not won this season and has posted a WHIP of 1.45.   The Royals have the better starter and offense in this one.

Play on Kansas City. This is a 3% play.